As Americans continue to guard their pocketbooks as they roll into 2025, c-store snack sales may experience a rough first half of the year, according to analysts.
Consumers gravitated toward value-based offerings throughout 2024, which will more than likely continue into the first half of 2025, predicted Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president and chief advisor for consumer goods and foodservice insights for Circana.
This tendency puts pressure on the convenience channel to capture consumer trips and sales, Wyatt noted. “Prices will have to be competitive with the value-based retailers to continue the momentum c-store is realizing,” she said.
Which leads to the first and largest trend for c-store snacks.
Value remains key to sales
C-stores had an “off year” in 2024, said Anne-Marie Roerink, principal at 210 Analytics.
“Consumers mixed in far more stores into their grocery shopping to capitalize on sales promotions,” said Roerink. “It appears that that focus on price meant some volume pressure for convenience stores.”
However, some of consumers’ value-based buying habits could benefit c-stores, according to Lyons Wyatt.
“The convenience channel had headwinds with consumers leaning into home occasions more in 2024, so we may see a more balanced approach of in- and out-of-home occasions,” she said.
C-stores should make sure not just to have a good assortment of options, but also a variety of sizes to appeal to multiple price points. Retailers can also lean on promotions and other pricing strategies to keep costs lower.
And it’s not always just about the lowest cost. Consumers are balancing price and promotion with mood, nutrition, convenience, sustainability and more, Roerink added.
"While the focus on money-saving measures is overriding, consumers also have many times and reasons when they will spend a little more,” Roerink said.
Potato and tortilla chips will continue to fluctuate
Potato and tortilla chip sales were on a roller coaster ride in 2024. Potato chips were at the top of that category and accounted for 30% of all salty snack sales in c-stores last year at $2.4 billion, according to Circana data.
However, during the quarter ending Dec. 1, potato chip volume plummeted 5% in c-stores, while dollar sales fell 2.7%. A disappointing potato crop in 2023 drove up prices that year, according to Roerink, while a better 2024 crop relieved the price pressure. Still, sales have been deflationary this year, she noted.
Tortilla chip sales were the inverse, increasing 2.5% for the quarter ending Dec. 1 but dropping about half a percent for the full year, according to Circana.
Still, tortilla chips are the second-highest-selling segment in the salty snacks category, surpassing $1.7 million in sales for the year ending Dec. 1.
Lyons Wyatt expects to continue to see fluctuations in sales of potato chips, tortilla chips and pretzels for at least the first six months of 2025.
Meat snacks, protein bar sales expected to rise
“All things protein” remains one of the biggest trends across many categories, according to Roerink.
“Meat snacks are quite the story over the past decade. Dollars, units and volume just continue to grow hand-in-hand with assortment,” she said.
In fact, jerky sales rose 2% for the quarter ending Dec. 1, while volume rose more than 1%. Sales of “all other meat snacks”, however, fell 5.6% while units dropped 8%.
“Given the quest for well-being by many U.S. consumers and impending education and changes with MAHA [Make America Healthy Again], I agree with the [positive] outlook of protein snacks,” Lyons Wyatt said.
In addition to a shift toward higher-protein diets, the category is benefiting from innovation, according to Roerink, including changes suppliers are making to the type of meat used — including exotic meats, along with chicken, turkey and other non-traditional proteins.
Due to the high protein trend, sales of “nutritional/intrinsic health value” bars in c-stores rose nearly 4% for the quarter. That’s compared to sales of “breakfast/cereal/snack bars/clusters,” which declined 12%, and granola bar sales, which dropped 10% during the same timeframe.
Cheese snacks cede ground to chips
Cheese snack sales, overall, were down in 2024, but it is unclear how 2025 will shake out. Cheese snacks are still a “snack fan favorite,” Lyons Wyatt said, noting that, over the past year, sales actually increased 1.2% while units fell 3.7%.
Roerink said that when potato chip sales were challenged in 2023 due to high inflation, cheese snacks had a strong year. Now that demand for potato chips has geared back up, “some of that demand appears to have shifted back.”
However, as a generally high protein snack, it could benefit from the push toward foods with functional benefits.
Cookies sales up in the air
As consumers balance a desire for more functional ingredients with the desire to treat themselves, cookie sales will likely continue to be caught in the middle in 2025. While sales of cookies in c-stores rose almost 2% for the quarter ending Dec. 1, unit sales declined around 4%.
“Over the past few years, consumers have become more focused on balanced diets over very restrictive ones. As such, we’re still seeing a strong focus on protein but not as strict of a limitation of carbs,” Roerink said.
Consumers who stick with the cookie category are seeking new experiences, unexpected flavors and flavor combinations, childhood favorites and traditions, and pure indulgence in their snacks, according to Roerink.
The top cookie flavors in c-stores over the past year include chocolate, peanut butter and caramel, according to Lyons Wyatt, while top-selling bar flavors include cookies & cream, chocolate chip cookie dough and marshmallow.
